Source: Sotaliraq, March 8, 2010
Iraq Votes – Part II
Iraq's Independent Elections Commission has announced that 62.4% of eligible voters cast their ballots in the general elections held on March 7. This turnout is about 15% below the unusually turnout in the 2005 elections.
The highest turnout in the current elections was registered in the Kurdish province in Dhouk, with 80%. The Shi’a province of Misan registered the lowest rate at 50%. Baghdad province, with the largest number of seats in parliament (70/325) was second lowest with 52%.
One suspects that the threat of violence in Baghdad by groups opposed to the political process may have deterred many voters from venturing out of their homes. The fear of violence was not unfounded, given that 38 persons were killed and 110 were wounded on Election Day.
The low turnout in Baghdad could hurt the prospects of the small liberal slates such as those of Mithal Alousi and Ayad Jamal Al-Din, who would normally be counting on the liberal vote in Baghdad for a big chunk of the votes they need to be elected.
Contrary to expectations, the number of Iraqis who voted in foreign countries totaled 272,000 out of potential voters estimated at 1.8 million. The largest number of votes outside Iraq was cast in Syria (about 43,000 votes) followed by Sweden (about 37,000 votes) where there is a high concentration of Kurdish voters. Only 23,500 Iraqis voted in Iran. There are complaints that the voting in Syria was rigged.
Speculations are rampant about winners and losers. Initial figures indicate that Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s slate State of Law did well in seven Shi’a provinces, while Ayad Allawi was the top vote-getter in the Sunni provinces, particularly in Al-Anbar, Salah Al-Din and Ninewa. All the Sunni provinces experienced a relatively high voter turnout, in the range of 65% to 70%.
The actual number of votes cast across Iraq will be published by the Elections Committee on March 18. Until then, rumors will provide grist for the mills.
Once the results are announced, the first order of the new parliament would be to elect a speaker. A more difficult subsequent task would be to elect a president of the republic, who will then designate an MP from a slate which gained the biggest number of seats to form the new government, which will most likely be a coalition government, since no slate is expected to gain an absolute majority of seats in parliament.
The election of a president will be neither easy nor swift, given that the body known as the presidential council, which comprises the president and his two vice presidents, will cease to exist. Henceforth, the president of the republic alone will yield the veto power on numerous constitutional and legal matters, and he will therefore be a more powerful figure than his predecessor, since he will not have to share power with others. The current president, Jalal Talabani, is a Kurd, and voices are being heard in favor of an Arab president.
In short, the process of electing a speaker of parliament, to be followed by the election of a president, and finally the designation of a person to form a government, and the time he will need to mobilize a majority in parliament, is likely to last for months. It will be a time of political vacuum that could lend itself to a renewed eruption of sectarian violence.
One anecdote about the elections relates to the business of pharmacies. Pharmacies in Baghdad were open late on Election Day to meet a brisk demand for high blood pressure and diabetes medications. One pharmacist expressed the hope for annual elections. One Iraqi voter quipped that the government should declare a state of emergency in the hospitals to accommodate all those who could not get enough votes to "even reach the entrance of parliament."
Sources: Independent Press Agency; aliraqnews.net; radionawa.com (March 8, 2010), and Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, March 9, 2009
