By MEMRI Staff
The Iraqi political process is in the throes of a dilemma – to recount or not to recount the ballots cast in the recent elections. Charges of fraud fill the political air. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki insists, under threats of resorting to violence, that the Elections Commission should recount the votes by hand, one at a time. Ayad Allawi accuses Al-Maliki of attempting to defraud the electorate through the recounting of votes and changing the results in his favor. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani was first quoted as tossing his hat into the recounting arena only to have one of his aides quickly deny the president's support, for a recount for reasons which will be explained below.
The Elections Commission has remained steadfast in its objection to any wide-scale recounting of votes, primarily on technical grounds. Even if the Commission were to agree under increasing public pressure and public demonstrations to come clean and agree to recount the votes the process of recounting could take months and would definitely be costly. During the hiatus the country would plunge into a serious political turmoil, not to mention that the U.S. schedule of military withdrawal from Iraq might have to be revised. However, the failure to recount the votes would catapult to power a government whose legitimacy would be drawn from tainted election results. But a possible solution appears to be emerging.
The Two Leading Shi'a Slates to Re-Unite
It seems almost certain that the two leading Shi'a-oriented groups – Prime Minister Al-Maliki's State of Law and Ammar Al-Hakim's Iraqi National Coalition, who ran on a joint platform in the 2005 elections but ran separately in the 2010 elections – are likely to reunite. Between them, they will control approximately 160 seats, and with the participation of the Kurdish Alliance and a number of minor groups and minorities, they will have a solid majority in parliament. It is not inconceivable that certain elements in Allawi's Al-Iraqiya will split to join a winning combination.
The purpose of the reunion is first and foremost to keep Ayad Allawi and his Sunni supporters from climbing into positions of power. Iran will be the biggest winner of a Shi'ite coalition, which Iran has not been reluctant to advocate publicly on numerous occasions. To cement their alliance, the two groups have also pledged to support the reelection of Jalal Talabani for a second term as president of Iraq. This endorsement will bring in more than 40 Kurdish votes in parliament. The Kurds themselves have been warming up to Iran through enhanced political and trade relations. Not surprisingly, Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Hassan Kazemi Qomi, accompanied by a delegation, was received yesterday by Jalal Talabani to discuss "the political developments on the Iraqi scene." The composition of the delegation which accompanied the ambassador was not revealed.
Constitutional Hurdle for Allawi
Allawi himself has run into a constitutional hurdle. Under Article 74 of the Iraqi constitution, a prime minister must be Iraqi born to two Iraqi parents. Allawi's mother is Lebanese, and legal scholars argue that save for a constitutional amendment, Allawi cannot serve as prime minister. Although Allawi has already served as prime minister, that service preceded the promulgation of the existing constitution, and is not relevant under the current constitutional order.
170 Members Secured Seats in Parliament
While the recounting issue has yet to be resolved, 170 candidates, or a little more than half of the 325 members of parliament, have already been guaranteed a seat. Apart from Al-Maliki and Allawi, a number of key political figures are considered "in." They include current Vice President Tareq Al-Hashemi, deputy prime minister Rafi' Al-'Issawi, former prime minister Ibrahim Al-Ja'fari, a current vice president and a strong contender for the post of prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi; Al-Maliki's spokesman 'Ali Al-Dabbagh, and current Iraqi oil minister Hussein Al-Shahristani . The election of Al-Sharistani is significant, because he was instrumental in securing a number of service contracts with major oil companies to increase oil production sharply in the next few years. Ahmad Chalabi, who in recent months has been identified as a key pro-Iranian figure in Iraqi politics, has made it as well.
We screened the list carefully but could count only few women who have made it so far. Under the Iraqi constitution, 25% of MPs are supposed to be women. It is almost certain that this target is beyond reach.
Perhaps equally significant is the number of key figures who did poorly in the elections. In the words of a cynic, some of them received fewer votes than the number of their bodyguards. Among those who fell by the wayside are Ali Al-Lami, the executive director of the Accountability and Justice Commission, who receive 325 votes; Judge Munir Haddad, who oversaw the execution of Saddam Hussein, gaining 177 votes; and Sherif Ali bin Al-Hussein, who aspires to restore the monarchy to Iraq, with a mere 489 votes. For now, at least, the restoration of monarchy to Iraq does not appear to be a viable option.
Sources: Alsumarianews.com; www.qanon302.com; www.alcauther.com; al-iraqnews.net; alrafidayn.com; rmiraq.com; and Sotaliraq, March 22, 2012
