Following recent disturbances in Tunisia, Algeria and Jordan caused by high food prices, Arab countries have rushed to take short-term measures to alleviate some of the difficulties. In the case of Jordan, the United States provided an emergency grant of $100 million to the Jordanian government to maintain stability in the markets and to reduce social tensions. Egypt spends 7% of its gross domestic product on food and energy subsidies. The author of an article in the London daily Al Hayat, Vikin Shitirian asks, is the Arab world on the verge of a new social movement caused by rising food prices in the world?
Shitirian maintains that the measures taken by the Arab government were necessary but short-term. He said that the problems are structural and likely to deteriorate. In a report issued by the World Bank in 2009, the point was made that the Arab countries import more than half of their nutritional needs and that these countries are considered the largest grain importers in the world. They spent $30 billion on food imports. In other words, the Arab countries must rely on other countries to maintain their food security. They are more sensitive to rain in Australia and snow in Canada than to the quantity of crops in Algeria or Egypt.
The population in the Arab world has increased fivefold during the twentieth century. Egypt's population has increased from 20 million one hundred years ago to 75 million in 2007. Because of rapid population growth rate of 2.3% annually in the Arab world, the United Nations projects Egypt's population to increase to 121 million in 2015, Algeria's population to increase from 33 million in 2007 to 49 million in by 2050, and Yemen's population to increase to 58 million by 2050.
The "demographic revolution" is occurring at a time when the two key elements of agriculture are deteriorating. The top soil has been damaged by industrialized agriculture and the excessive use of fertilizers which causes crops to decline over time. Thousands of dams built on rivers to generate power and regulate water flows have also reduced the availability of water for agriculture, another factor affecting the size of crops.
It remains to be seen how the political systems in the Arab world will be able to cope with these problems and with the need to create 40-50 million new jobs in the next decade.
Source: Al-Hayat, London, January 21, 2011
