The balance of power in the Middle East could undergo sharp fluctuations if Iraq succeeds in tripling its oil production and forming a strong Shi'ite front with Iran inside OPEC.

This could raise concern in Saudi Arabia, which suspects that the rise of the Shi'a majority to power in Iraq could cause dissention inside OPEC that would inhibit harmony inside the organization.

More likely, however, the development of oil in Iraq will feed tensions with Iran, since it would draw investments away from the Islamic Republic and heighten its social tensions, as it will deprive Tehran of funds it badly needs, particularly if the development of oil fields in Iraq brings down the price of crude.

The revenues from the additional 4.5 million barrels a day that Iraq would produce will allow it to challenge Iran's influence in the Shi'ite world.

One observer pointed out that Iran would be the loser as a result of the auctions that Iraq has adopted in the selection bidders for the development of its oil fields.

Source: Al-Rafidayn, Iraq, December 10, 2009