The two politicians leading the polls – Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and former prime minister Ayad Allawi

By MEMRI Staff

Figures on the results of the voting for the general elections on March 7 continue to trickle down, offering only preliminary indications about winners and losers.

So far, Al-Maliki's State of Law is leading in seven provinces, which control 148 seats in parliament; it is followed by Ayad Allawi's al-Iraqiya, which is leading in five provinces, which control 82 seats in parliament.

Ranked third is the Iraqi National Alliance, the coalition of key Shi'a parties, leading in three provinces, with a total seat allocation of 39.

The two major Kurdish parties have an overwhelming lead in the three Kurdish provinces, with a total seat allocation in parliament of 31.

The Elections Commission has said that it would announce today the results of 60% of the votes cast in the elections across Iraq, with complete results to be announced by the end of the month.

The Commission has failed to deliver on earlier promises and the risk is that the longer is the delay in announcing the final results the greater are complaints of fraud.

While the final vote count must be recorded and the seats allocated among the various contestants, the four leading groups listed in the table below are already engaged in exploratory negotiations about the shape of the coalition government that will be put together eventually. The political combinations are almost infinite if one takes into consideration that the large blocs could break up during the bargaining process and if the incentive to do so is irresistible. 

In the meantime, all eyes are centered on Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government, as political leaders from the various blocs march into the city to meet with the dominant Kurdish leader Masoud Barazani, in recognition that the Kurds will provide the winning margin.

A number of Iraqi political leaders, including former prime minister Ibrahim Al-Ja'fari and current vice president Tareq Al-Hashemi, have expressed a preference for a Sunni president of Iraq, to reflect the Arab roots of the country. However, most observers seem to agree that while sectarian considerations will continue to be a factor in any political configuration in the future, it is not likely to be the predominant factor, as was the case in the formation of the outgoing government. The Iraqi electorate has clearly expressed a preference for more nationalist and secular groups over purely religious-based political parties.

INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS IN EIGHT PROVINCES

While the Kurds have denounced the calls for an Arab president and emphasized that the constitution does not distinguish between Arabs and Kurds, it is clear that the election of a Kurd as a president of Iraq with few powers would not be at the top of the Kurdish priorities. One suspects that their two principal priorities will be the annexation of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into the autonomous region of Kurdistan, and reaching an agreement with the central government about the status of the oil agreements signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government with a number of oil companies for oil exploration in the Kurdish Region.

The political forces that would comprise the new governing coalition would have major im class=blogplications for the relations between Iraq and Iran. A coalition headed by the Iraqi National Coalition would have a pro-Iranian orientation, while a coalition headed by Ayad Allawi would have a pro-Arab and pro-American orientation. Al-Maliki will pursue nationalist policies, and his relations with Iran will continue to be close but guarded. In this connection, the former speaker of parliament, Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, a Sunni politician, quipped: "Whoever talks about Iran swallowing Iraq is deluded. Swallowing Iraq is akin to swallowing a snake."1

Endnotes:

[1] Al-Mada, March 14, 2010. See also www.alrafidayn.com, March 14, 2010; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, March 12, 2010