Commentary by MEMRI Staff

Our most recent commentary of August 9 on the subject of forming a new government was titled "Iraq: Another Week of Verbal Skirmishes."  This could be the title for this week's commentary as well, but for one major significant development – U.S. combat units have left Iraq. The remaining units, numbering close to 56,000 soldiers, while not called "combat units," are not exactly non-combat units. They have armor, helicopters and air support, and will continue to support Iraqi military forces in joint operations when their presence is deemed essential. The U.S. forces will provide logistical support and training to the Iraqi security forces at least until the final withdrawal of U.S. forces at the end of 2011.

Allawi, Al-Maliki Engage in Shadow Boxing

The two leading Iraqi factions, Allawi's al-Iraqiya and al-Maliki's State of Law, have for some time been engaged in fruitless discussions – that can hardly be characterized as negotiations – on the formation of a new government. However, early last week, following a statement by al-Maliki that al-Iraqiya is a Sunni group, al-Iraqiya took offense and suspended the negotiation with State of Law, demanding an apology from al-Maliki. Al-Maliki sent some form of a written apology or clarification regarding his statement, and al-Iraqiya considered the issue closed and agreed to renew the negotiation with al-Maliki's group. 

However, there came a new twist. Al-Iraqiya has demanded that negotiations with the State of Law explicitly exclude the name of al-Maliki as prime minister. State of Law has reciprocated by demanding that the name of Ayad Allawi should be excluded from the discussion. It is a plan for a wedding in which the names of the bride and groom are not to be mentioned.

In the meantime, both factions are sending each other "papers" outlining their proposals for solving the problem, which boils down to whom of the two, Allawi or al-Maliki, should be the next prime minister. In a comprehensive interview given yesterday, Allawi maintained that the U.S. objects to his candidacy in favor of someone who would also be acceptable to Iran. In this case, it is al-Maliki. The new U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, James Jeffrey, added his "clarification" that the U.S. would veto the Sadrists in the future government of Iraq because the U.S. would not support a group that combines politics with violence.

Other Actors in the Picture

There are two other factions which have a say on the matter. First, is the Iraqi National Alliance which has rejected both al-Maliki and Allawi. The Alliance has announced that it would meet in the next few days to designate its candidate for the prime minister post. It said it would select one of three candidates: outgoing vice president Adel Abd Al-Mahdi, former prime minister Ibrahim al-Ja'afari, and the former darling of the U.S. defense establishment and the current most pro-Iranian politician, Ahmad al-Chalabi.

And there is the Kurdish Alliance which is on record as saying that it would endorse any political combination that supports the Kurdish minimum demands regarding: the status of Kirkuk, the nature of the provincial autonomy, and the status of oil exploration in, and oil export from, the Kurdish province. In fact, they have submitted a paper which includes no less than 18 demands as a condition for joining a new government coalition.

Significant Developments

There are two other significant developments worth mentioning: first, is the official visit to Moscow by Ayad Allawi who arrived there August 20 to meet with Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin. Al-Iraqiya spokeswoman Maysoon al-Damlooji said that Allawi was to ask the Russian interlocutors to inform Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that if he, Allawi, were selected as prime minister he would not allow an attack on Iran from Iraqi territory. It is known that Iran rejects Allawi because of his perceived anti-Iranian position and supports Nouri al-Maliki to remain in his post as prime minister despite the fact that he lacks the support of any of the leading factions in parliament.

The other significant development is the possible gathering next week of the leading Iraqi political factions in meeting in Damascus to be hosted by the Syrian government in an effort to break the logjam. The proposed meeting,  according to Fattah al-Sheikh, a key al-Iraqiya figure, will be guided by Turkey, endorsed by Saudi Arabia and Syria and supported by Moscow (hence Allawi's invitation to Russia). Al-Sheikh said the Iraqis favor a joint Arab effort to extricate their country from the current crisis, worsened by the American and Iranian meddling. In fact, the Iranian pressure on Ammar al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr to support al-Maliki has been so intense that al-Sadr threatened to leave Iran for Lebanon (there is a pending warrant for the arrest of al-Sadr for a case involving the murder of young Shi'a cleric.)

The underlying purpose of such a meeting would be to reach an agreement that would allow all the political factions to share power. If that were to happen, there will be a government paralyzed by competing political forces and conflicting political loyalties. The spokesman for al-Maliki, Ali al-Dabbagh, was quick to pour cold water on the planned meeting which he characterized as "routine."

We conclude our commentary with a reference to uncommon personal modesty for a politician. There was a name mentioned as a possible compromise for prime minister. It was that of Mohammad Allawi, Ayad's cousin and the key negotiator for al-Iraqiya. The candidacy of Mohammad Allawi was promoted primarily by al-Sadrists. In response, Mohammad Allawi said he was not a candidate; more significantly, he said he was not qualified to be prime minister.

Sources: Al-Zaman, Iraq, August 21; Al-Rafidayn, August 20 and 22; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, August 22; www.alwafoq.net, August 22;  Al-Mada, Iraq, August 22; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, August 23; www.nakhelnews.com, August 22; Al-Zaman, Iraq,  August 23, 2010