Commentary by MEMRI Staff
The Sadrists, supporters of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have declared that they will categorically object to the involvement of Iranian Majlis speaker Ali Larijani who was recently assigned the Iraq dossier, if his planned visit is connected to selection of a prime minister or to the formation of a new government.
Sadrist movement spokesman Baha al-'Araji said the forming of a new government is an Iraqi issue and should be discussed on Iraqi soil.
After this categorical refusal to deal with Larijani on the issue of Iraqi government, one daily reported the appearance of "white smoke" over the skies of Iraq, originating from Tehran. The report is about an alleged deal between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Sadrists, under which the Sadrists will support al-Maliki for a second term provided certain conditions are met – chief among them the release of the Sadrist prisoners in Iraqi prisons, including those who were sentenced to death for slaughtering innocent people during the conflagration of communal and sectarian violence in Iraq during 2006-2007. The deal also seeks to trim the powers of the prime minister, and in fact turn him into a captive in the hands of Muqtada al-Sadr.
While the alleged deal was in the making, al-Sadr suddenly appeared in Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Al-Sadr said he was invited to Syria by Assad, but did not divulge the reason for the urgent invitation. Shortly thereafter, Ayad Allawi travelled to Damascus for a meeting with al-Sadr under the auspices of the Syrian government. It is rumored, howev er, that the Syrian regime is behind the candidacy of Adel Abd al-Mahdi, a member of the Supreme Islamic Council and the outgoing vice president of Iraq. It is not known whether Assad's reported preference for al-Mahdi is shared by Iran, although, for Iran, almost any Shi'a candidate but Ayad Allawi is preferred. Allawi has also declared categorically that he would not be in a joint government under al-Maliki.
It is clear that Iran is pulling out all the stops to ensure that the next government of Iraq will be malleable and not just friendly to Iran, to be certain that they will fill the vacuum that will neceesarily be created upon the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq – which was also confirmed categorically yesterday by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Iran would prefer to see its borders with Iraq less patrolled and less protected, so that it can transfer its agents and, if necessary, its sponsored terrorists to its neighbor to the west and give them freedom of movement within it.
What is less understood is that territorial continguity between Iran and Syria-Lebanon via Iraq will be a major destabilizing factor in the Middle East. Friends of America in Iraq and in many countries in the region would like to see more active U.S. involvement in the process of forming a new government.
Sources: Al-Sabah al-Jadid, July 17, 2010; Al-Akhbar, July 18, 2010; Alsumarianews.com, July 17, 2010; www.qanon302.net, July 18, 2010; Al-Rafidayn, July 18, 2010; Al-Sabah, July 19, 2010
