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Aksam: In Iran, lurking danger for Turkey
"There's one key actor that we should have a look at in order to understand the chaos in Iran and how the balances will change from now on. That actor is Washington. The protests in Tehran point to a new era which will have an impact on US policy and a large region including Turkey.
"Since its 1979 revolution, Iran has built its politics on opposing the 'great Satan' US. It has followed an anti-Western line and gradually grown more and more distant from Washington. But something has changed recently, namely Washington's rapprochement efforts. President Barack Obama is set to pursue a strategy of dialogue with Tehran as a key leg of his policy of peace with the Islamic world.
"Now Obama has the most difficult task ahead of him with the shifting balances, because he'll either seek dialogue with the Ahmedinejad government as he promised, or harden his policies harsher and break his promise. So far Obama hasn't taken a very tough stand favoring challenger Mir Hossain Mousavi, but tried to take a moderate stance. So criticisms of him in the US are getting sharper. Many Americans wonder why the US isn't protesting the election results as much as Europe. For the US, the most important point on Iran is its nuclear program. So the critical point for Obama in deciding his next policy move is what Iran does with in its nuclear program.
"In light of the current picture, Ahmedinejad isn't likely to soften his stance. On the contrary, he's getting harsher to bolster his legitimacy. As we've been seeing for two days, Iran is gradually retreating into itself. If things go on like this, the embargo against Iran might be made tighter. If this happens, I would pity Turkey! Because in that case the UN Security Council will also intervene and everybody will begin to look at Turkey (which now has a temporary seat on the council). I wonder if Ankara is getting ready for this possibility.
"For example, what would happen if Turkey is asked to sign onto an oil embargo on Iran? If we rejected it, we would face a great pressure from the UN, mostly the US and the European Union, and suffer problems in relations with the West. If we accept it, this would make our relations with Iran difficult and put us in a tough spot in the region. In evaluating the new situation in Iran, it would be useful to consider this side of the issue which extends to the UN and concerns Turkey, starting from Washington."
Source: Aksam (Turkey), Op-Ed by Nagehan Alci, June 24, 2009
Posted at: 2009-06-24
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